Ether (ETH) led major cryptocurrencies lower during Thursday’s Asian trading hours, as odds of a U.S. government shutdown hit record highs on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket.
The price of Yes-side shares for the betting contract «U.S. government shutdown in 2025?» rose to 77%, the highest since the contract’s launch in January. Traders are essentially pricing a 77% probability that the U.S. Office of Personnel Management will announce a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by Dec. 31. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a shutdown by Oct. 1 stood at 63%.
According to media reports, the White House is preparing for large-scale job cuts in the event of a shutdown. On Wednesday, the Office of Management and Budget issued a memo asking agencies to prepare plans for staff reductions and furloughs if a spending bill is not passed next week.
The government is reportedly expected to run out of money by the end of September. To prevent the resulting shutdown, Congress must either approve a short-term funding measure, known as a continuing resolution, or pass 12 full-year funding bills. Since lawmakers won’t finish the full-year bills before the deadline, a temporary funding stopgap is needed.
More importantly, to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to pass funding bills, support from both parties is usually necessary.
BTC, ETH under pressure
Ether fell over 3% in Asia, almost testing $4,000 for the first time Aug. 8, with bitcoin (BTC) falling over 1% to under $112,000. Other major tokens such as XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) and dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 2.6% to 3%. Solana’s SOL appeared set to break below $200.
The CoinDesk 20 Index was down 2% at 3,940 points. Meanwhile, futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, traded flat to positive.
Although the exact cause of the cautious crypto market sentiment was not clear at the time of writing, growing concerns about a potential government shutdown may have contributed to the risk-averse mood among investors.
Furthermore, overnight comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her support for further rate cuts, but declined to provide a timeline, instead stressing data dependence, which may have hurt sentiment.
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17 while hinting at two more rate cuts by the year’s end. Since then, policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have signaled a cautious approach to future rate cuts.
Seven Fed officials, including the New York Fed’s Williams, are scheduled to speak on Thursday. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting Friday’s PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
«If inflation pressures appear contained, markets may interpret this as room for further Fed cuts, providing liquidity tailwinds into Q4. That could be the catalyst for BTC to attempt a long-anticipated breakout,» the market insights team at Singapore-based QCP Capital said.