Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
The crypto market is flashing warning signs. Institutions are stepping back as they take profit, ETF inflows are collapsing, and bitcoin (BTC) looks rangebound as it struggles to challenge $120K.
Market observers say that the focus now turns to Ether (ETH) and whether it can bring capital back into the fold.
After BTC’s brief touch of all-time highs, the market has entered a consolidation phase. Glassnode data shows institutional ETF inflows have dramatically cooled, plunging 80% this week to just $496 million, accompanied by a decline in ETF trading volume to $18.7 billion.
Bitcoin’s spot market sentiment is also weakening, with Relative Strength Index – a measure of an asset if overbought or oversold status – retreating sharply, underscoring that the asset is moving away from overbought levels. These signals indicate a clear institutional withdrawal, raising questions about potential further downside.
QCP Capital notes similar tensions in derivatives.
Funding rates for perpetual futures remain above 15%, suggesting aggressive long positioning, but recent flows show large players taking profit and hedging downside.
A major ETH call fly was unwound, QCP said in its note, while sizeable BTC puts were bought for protection, not the kind of activity that supports a fresh leg up.
Still, QCP remains constructive.
“Momentum, narrative strength, and macro tailwinds are still on our side,” it wrote in a recent update. “Hodlers and institutions will likely buy the dip, as we saw on Friday.”
Enflux, however, isn’t sounding the alarm.
The market maker views current conditions as a period of consolidation, not capitulation. Spot and perp markets are treading water, not bleeding out.
“How institutional ETH flows evolve, and whether capital re-engages with alts, would likely guide the next leg of market structure,” the firm said in a note to CoinDesk.
ETH is caught between these perspectives. If institutions return, capital could rotate back into ETH and reignite the altcoin cycle. If not, this consolidation may harden into something worse.
For now, the rally has paused and the path forward hinges on Ethereum. Glassnode sees fragility. Enflux sees neutrality. QCP sees hedged optimism. But the next breakout, or breakdown, will likely be sparked by how ETH flows materialize.
Market Movements
BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118K, consolidating between channel support at $114K and resistance near the all-time high of $123K, after a liquidity sweep below $116K and renewed supply from a reactivated whale wallet stalled bullish momentum, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.
ETH: Ethereum is trading at $3,783, holding a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern targeting $4,300, but neutral funding rates near multi-year resistance suggest trader caution, even as institutional accumulation continues
Gold: Gold fell to a near three-week low, with spot prices down 0.7% to $3,313.57, as a U.S.-EU trade deal boosted risk sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets ahead of a busy week for earnings and the Fed.
Nikkei 225: Asia markets opened lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.61% as traders are in wait-and-see mode to determine if more trade deals can be struck around the region.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 ended Monday nearly flat, as the U.S.-EU trade deal failed to ignite a new rally